The stock market is into a pretty good-sized correction. It’s not clear to me where exactly the correction will stop, but one thing is clear: The earnings of large blue-chip technology companies have been improving, while their stocks are going down. That's an opportunity. The stock market is a funny thing, it's the only "market" where people get disappointed when prices go down. As a shopper, that's a good thing, especially if you are using good valuation metrics when you do your shopping. Large companies have pared back technology spending for years, but there are signs that it's starting to bounce back, with capital spending budgets. Given that 2010 is off to a good earnings start  for technology companies, I think there's a high probability that companies continue increasing tech spending. I have been combing through the stock screens looking for “dream stocks” – large-cap tech with good track records, improving earnings, and cheap valuations. I found lots of candidates. In fact, other than March of 2009, it was hard to find a time when you could buy high-quality tech stocks at such cheap valuations. Many of them are at P/Es under 20, including Apple, which has a 5-year growth rate of more than 40%! I cannot remember the last time a stock with this kind of growth was available at a forward P/E of 19. Note that timing the market in 2010 is likely to be very difficult given all of the unsolved issues with leverage, government debt, and currency volatility. The markets will continue to be volatile, but that's why I think it's a "stock pickers market." That is, you can use market weakness to buy stocks with reasonable or cheap valuations. In large-cap tech, you can stay relatively safe. These companies have rock-solid balance sheet (billions of dollars in cash), low or no debt, earnings power, and  they are generating large amounts of cash flow. Here are my Top Five: Apple Computer Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) 5-Year Sales Growth: 39% Return on Equity: 32% Forward P/E: 19 Dividend Yield: N/A Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) 5-year Sales Growth: 10% Return on Equity: 41% Forward P/E: 12.7 Dividend yield: 1.86% Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) 5-year Sales Growth: 10% Return on Equity: 15.5% Forward P/E: 15.5 Dividend yield: N/A Hewlett-Packard Inc. (NYSE: HPQ) 5-year sales growth: 7.5% Return on Equity: 19% Forward P/E: 10 Dividend yield: .68% EMC (NYSE: EMC) 5-year Sales Growth: 11% Return on Equity: 8% Forward P/E: 19 Dividend yield: N/A. Note: EMC is certainly not the cheapest stock in the bunch, but the valuation numbers are misleading. EMC is the majority owner of VMware (VMW), which is growing like gangbusters, so you need to take that into consideration in the share price. To a large extent the market has discounted the value of VMware and you can own EMC for its own fundamentals while also getting a call option on the growth in VMware. Disclosure: Long MSFT, looking to buy AAPL and CSCO
This entry was posted on Monday, February 08, 2010 at 17:10 pm and is filed under Macro.
Keywords: Capital Spending, Cisco Systems Inc., Earnings, EMC, Hewlett-Packard, Markets, Microsoft Inc., VMWare