Tuesday, May 11, 2010
I get a lot of questions about why I write about technology, the stock market, and gold so much. Why mix it up? Well, that's because I believe that the world is very connected -- especially the financial and economic world. Technology really isn't that different from gold, actually. They are both currencies. They are both means of trade. I also believe that both are capable of spawning revolutions.  You see, gold, like technology, is based on a standard: it's a standard for the monetary base.That's becoming more evident today as we see gold head to new highs, as I wrote would happen here. As the world fiat monetary system collapses (we're witnessing this before our very eyes), that will spawn a move to more open monetary systems. Think of the days back during mainframes and proprietary mini-computer standards. The world was ruled by technology fiefdoms  and proprietary systems produced by powerhouses such as IBM in Wang Labs. The mini-computer was replaced by the industry-standard PC. Wang filed for bankruptcy. In the 1980s, and later, in the 1990s, the move to open systems accelerated as chips, networking standards, and communications opened up and could become interchangeable, spawning the creating of a massive ecosystem of suppliers. There were suddenly thousands of technology producers, rather than a handful. Technology activity throughout the world exploded. That's the power of open standards.
I like stock charts. I have studied many of them over the years, and consulted with the best chartologist. Today's big rally, following last week's meltdown, has retraced about two-thirds of the markets losses in the last week. But it has also produced a scary, bizarro chart. Today's gap-up now leaves a huge gap between the 1130 and 1145 level, which I have marked below with some white lines. Let's call it a "Euro freak-out" gap.  It is my experience with dramatic moves like this that these gaps are almost always filled again.This ugly chart is among several reasons why I'm not confident in today's "comeback rally."