Well, today's fairly predictable late-day puke will give the "technicians" a field day tomorrow.
Here are just some relevant technical points:
- Market back below 200-day moving average (MA), which has flattened and looks to be turning down.
- "Death Cross": 50-day MA crosses the 200-day MA.
- 12-month moving average is turning down.
- Market made a new 6-month low.
- Significant level of support -- 1030 to 1050 -- taken out with conviction.
- Market has been rallying on low volume and selling off on high volume.
- The tape has generally been ugly, with a bear-market morning rally, late-day sellof mode that was characteristic of the bear market 2008/2009.
Now, I am not a technical black magician, but I do believe that techicals have a way of confirming changes in fundamentals and psychology. The fundamental data has been weakening. A weak jobs report on Friday could be the nail in the coffin.
Technically, all of the above indicates resumption of the secular bear market. It will have all the talking heads, traders, and banks in a new psychological framework.
As they say, at any point in time the market has a way of creating the most pain for the most people and I think the violent reversal off the recovery rally and the contrairian plunge in bond yields has taught everybody that lesson once again.
