Thursday, July 8, 2010

Yesterday, I pointed out that it's absurd to consider Microsoft a declining company when in fact it's been making an average of $15B a year in profit and has increased the value of its balance sheet  by billions of dollars every year for the past three years, during the worst recession of the past 80 years.

Today, to answer the critics, I will point out what's gone well and what's gone wrong with Microsoft. I'll even make suggestions about what the company should change. I believe the company is coming to a crucial point in its history, and CEO Steve Ballmer needs to make some radical changes.

First off: Microsoft's core businesses are as healthy as ever. Now that it fixed the Windows Vista debacle and Windows 7 is shipping, Microsofts' Windows Division and its Business Division are firing on all cylinders. Consider this: in fiscal year 2009, which ended June 30, 2009, the Windows division made $10B in profit. It has already equalled that in only 3 quarters of business this year. That means when Microsoft announces its earnings later this month it's likely to report year-on-year profit growth of more than 20% in the Windows division.

Today's headlines are filled with the usual obsessions: bank risks, online video, iPhone's and search.

What I find interesting about today's market dynamics is the dichotomy between Silicon Valley, where everything's gravy and people think it's still easy to get rich -- and the rest of the world, where people are worried about their state or country going bankrupt and making a dime is very tough.

Here's the news for today: