Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Cisco shares are getting hammered nearly 6% after hours after the company missed targets set by analysts.

The company said in a release that it earned $1.9 billion, or 33 cents per share, in the fiscal fourth quarter that ended July 31. That is an increase of $1.1 billion, or 19 cents per share, over a year ago. But analysts had expected 42 cents in earnings. Overall revenue grow to a record $40 billion.

That's a big miss, especially for Cisco, a company that often beats estimates. Given that it's a technology bellwether and often looked to for guidance on the economy as a whole, it will likely add to pressure on the general market tomorrow.

The Internet privacy movement appears to be gathering steam and leading to growing paranoia (warranted) among those who have the most to lose: Dozens of venture-backed ad networks and advertising data companies.

What's going on? Well, certainly the Wall Street Journal series on data privacy didn't help. This may be the high-profile media piece that tips public opinion toward the privacy advocates, who have been quietly ramping up their assault on the free-and-easy exhange of Internet advertising data.

What should be scaring the Internet marketing companies: The ideas are starting to gain traction in Washington, D.C. Reps. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Joe Barton (R-Texas) recently issued statements that "that the price of consumers' daily use of the Internet increasingly is surrender of their personal information."

At the same time, you have other escalating assaults on the Internet advertising marketing machine. Let me name just a few examples:

This potentially huge development doesn't seem to be getting that much play. Over the past few years, the venture capital industry has funded hundreds of ad data and ad network companies, all of them based on the premise that ad data would be freely acquired, exchanged and even traded. One such company is Blue Kai, a company I've followed on this site, which has their entire business model based on the exchange of anonymous ad data. There are dozens more. What happens to companies like that if powerful privacy legislation is passed?

And then we have even a bigger story: What about Google? Imagine what could happen to Google's market cap if the legislators initiate sweeping changes to Internet privacy laws.

This story is currently being underreported and underhyped. If you are in the Internet advertising or media industry, you should watch it closely. It could change your life.

Let's see, the stock market rallied while economic data was weakening. Yet bonds were rallying at the same time, and yields have been plunging -- to near record-lows of 2.75% in the 10-year! This was a great dichotomy that had many people scratching their heads. Why would stocks rally and bond yields plunge while we got weakening economic data?

Well, if they were fueling up the helicopters, that would make sense.

Remember the bond market is often "smarter" than the stock market. The plunge in yields has been telling you something. Is it not interesting that the stock market and bond rally continued until the Fed announcement and then failed on yesterday's news? Sell the news, baby.