R. Scott Raynovich

Well, the 3Par bidding war saga looks to be coming to an end as HP's final $33 offer has been accepted and Dell has pulled out of the race.

It makes you wonder about the "efficient market" theory, doesn't it? I mean, here is a stock that was trading around $10 and basically flatlined for about a year, only to suddenly increase by more than 300% in a period of three weeks. The market certainly wasn't efficient at pricing 3Par shares.

Here are the latest stats on 3Par at the current near-$33 level:

Market Cap: $2B

Forward P/E: 122

Revenue (TTM) $203M

Price/Sales (TTM): 9.84

Enterprise value/EBITDA: 294

Hmmm. Not sure I'd call that a bargain.

Onto the rest of the news:

 

I'm a key influencer. I'm also a technology evangelist, analyst, and journalist. And I can also leverage core competencies. Uh-oh. Sick of me yet?

We live in a world of prototypes, buzzwords, hype, and cliche. That's why I think CIO has hit the market with an article on the "10 Loathsome Technology Industry Types."

Here's an excerpt:

Vendor Marketing EVP You've got great hair—and you know it. Every conversation inevitably returns to "synergistic opportunities for the brand" or "CSR initiatives." You've got an iPhone 4 and you're hip to Facebook and Foursquare. Your most recent and greatest idea (if you do say so yourself): "I know how we'll get potential customers' contact information: Free iPad Giveaway! No one else is doing it!"

Venture Capitalist Wait, wait, don't tell me: You're based in the San Francisco / Palo Alto area, right? Uh-huh. And you once worked for HP or IBM? Yes. You enjoy yachting and golf? You betcha. And, of course, don't forget about your passion for "fine wine." How unique.

The Influencer A relatively new moniker for the same old type of self-aggrandizing, undeserving attention whore of years past: You've probably referred to yourself as a "guru" or "visionary" before. But your "highly soughtafter" methodology for measuring your Twitter influence is a secret worth keeping close to the vest. Definitely.

Pretty good stuff. Go check out the full story at CIO.com: "Influence This: 10 Loathsome Technology Industry Types."

 

If only you could have the problem of having a 2% investment in a company whose share price has gone to the moon, right? Well, that's where Cisco is with VMware. While its equity stake looks smart at this stage, in the longer term Cisco is going to have to make a bid for either EMC (VMWare's parent company) or figure out the next step to get in the virtualization game.

Here's the problem: Virtualization and cloud computing, VMware's bread-and-butter, is the technology flavor of the decade, and Cisco is relying heavily on a strategic partnership with VMware to get it done. Sources in Silicon Valley are chattering about what Cisco will do about virtualization, a party its been largely left out of. As VMWare's price has shot up while Cisco's share price has stagnated, it's now become all but unaffordable to for Cisco -- VMware now has a market capitalization of $33B.

Gold is popping this morning on a number of bullish forecasts, among them a survey of analysts by Bloomberg that sees the yellow metal going to $1,500:

Gold may rise as high as $1,500 next year, 21 percent more than the $1,240 traded at 1:45 p.m. in London, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey of 29 analysts, traders and investors. Dan Brebner, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in London who is the most accurate forecaster so far this year, says the metal may reach $1,550.

With the economy stuck in neutral and Ben Bernanke's money-printing minions firing up another round of Monopoly money, I don't see any reason why gold can't go to $1,500. However, if you are late to the gold party and are afraid of chasing it, here's an idea: Buy some gold mining stocks. They have lagged the gold rally most of the way up.

Some quality gold and silver stocks, including Newmont Minining (NEM), Royal Gold (RGLD), and Pan American Silver (PAAS), are breaking out this morning with bullish action.

What's on my mind this morning? Litigation. Like, Paul Allen suing everybody. And everybody suing Facebook.

What's up with that? Has the economy gotten so bad that the world is looking to lawyers to boost buisness activity?

In other news:

Genzyme rejects Sanofi bid (Wall Street Journal)

Intel to buy Infineon's wireless outfit for $1.4B (CNN Money).

Blackberry gets a stay in India (BBC). Quick -- figure out how to let people spy!

HP authorizes $10B buyback (Bloomberg). Bidding wars, buybacks -- who needs all that cash, anyway.

Government to propose new fuel economy stickers (USA Today). They'll come with pretty new graphics! Yay, now that's what I call bureaucracy at work...

Most people don't want to be located (NY Times). Especially me. Right now.

Google plans pay-per-view films (Financial Times).

Cisco is reportedly trying to buy Skype before its IPO (TechCrunch).

This bidding war between HP and Dell for 3Par says something to me about big technology companies: They are stuck. They can't grow internally, so they have to look outside the company.

If you think about the evolution of all big industries, they trend toward consolidation and giant companies eating up new companies in the search for growth and innovation. This certainly appears to be the case with players like HP, Dell, Microsoft, and Cisco. The new innovation is not coming from within, it's coming from outside.

Little storage player 3Par Data is suddenly the envy of many, as it gets caught up in a massive bidding war between Dell and HP which have caused its share price to nearly double in a period of a week.

What gives? Well, virtualization and data centers, in a nutshell. As traditional enterprise spending slows, data centers continue to grow like mad, fueled by Internet services, social networking, and "cloud computing." It turns out that storage and virtualization services -- 3Par blends both of these -- are crucial to this high-growth area of computing.

First there was "greentech," now there is "yellowtech." A team of research scientists in the U.K. are investigating whether urea, a major component of urine, could be used to create energy through low-cost fuel cells.

From Physorg.com:

The biggest obstacles to commercialising these proton exchange membrane fuel cells are cost, with the membrane and conventional, platinum-based catalysts, and challenges involving the transportation and storage of the highly flammable hydrogen or the toxic methanol.

The Carbamide Power System involves far cheaper membrane and catalysts, and can be run on urea (also known as carbamide), a mass manufactured industrial fertilizer and a major component of human and animal urine.

Read the rest here.

Another day, another deal. Intel has agreed to buy security software firm McAfee for $7.68 billion (Wall Street Journal). That's $48 per share, or a 60% premium to Wednesday's closing price. Nice pop!

This is a pretty interesting move for Intel, as the chipmaker moves into the big security software market, taking on other giants such as Symantec.

Some more news:

Let's catch up on many of the public companies and stocks we've been following:

After months of talking to smart people and taking notes, my latest notebook is filled. Usually what I do at this point is read back through the whole thing to see if there are any nuggets that I missed or forgot about.

Why not just dump it straight onto the Web? This is stuff that real people are saying in the real world. For your pleasure, here you go:

Is there a more explosive economic concept than combining iProducts with China? Didn't think so. In that vein, MarketWatch reports that China Unicom starts to ship iPhone 4 in China next month.

Our mind is boggled by the concept of hundreds of millions of frenetic Chinese citizens roaming the fastest growing country on earth clutching iPhones and iPads.

On to the rest of the news:

The Internet advertising industry appears to be in denial about the growing momentum behind Internet privacy -- and it should start to prepare for more protection of data through global privacy legislation.

As I noted last week, the European Union is moving toward privacy policies, most notably with the "cookie directive" which would require all advertisers to obtain opt-in to place cookies in user browsers.  In addition, we are in the early stages of new privacy legislation in the United States which would introduce tighter Internet privacy.

All of these powerful new regulations are likely to put signficant pressure on Internet media, most notably the ecosystem of ad networks and data exchanges.

Dell is making a big move into the data storage market with a $1.15 billion all-cash deal for 3Par Inc. It comes at an interesting time, as 3Par's growth and share price had recently slowed and it is still losing money. The offer is an 86% premium to 3Par's closing price Friday of $9.65

The move shows Dell has an interest in moving outside the commoditized world of PCs and comsumer electronics and into higher margin data-center products. 3Par specializes in building large storage arrays for corporations and data centers which can be "virtualized," or partitioned so that the system can handle data from many applications at once.

At any rate, it's paying off big for 3Par shareholders this morning with the stock indicating it will trade up nearly 85%.

The "Net Neutrality" debate has taken a interesting turn this week, triggered by Verizon and Google's joint statement to move toward more tiered services on the Internet.

Here's where I am on net neutrality: It's not black or white. It's gray. Yes, we need to preserve an element of freedom to access applications over broadband. But also, the definition of net neutraility needs to leave some wiggle room to help telecom and media companies roll out some newer premium appications that make money.

I think the recent developments are actually exciting, because there is now a catalyst for change and the debate is out on the table. Verizon and Google getting together is kind of like the executives of the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees coming to the table on a stadium-sharing deal. But this shows how crucial the issue is, if two of the most powerful corporations in the world are willing to come to the table to talk about it.

As the net neutraility fanatics grab their pitchforks and fire up their blogs, ready the roast the big evil corporations that are trying to swipe away their YouTube Internet, they're being naive if they think things can stay as they are. Stuff's gonna change.

Oh, this is fantastic, Oracle is suing Google. Larry Ellison vs. Eric Schmidt -- the Alpha Male vs. the Science Geek. This is going to be very interesting!

Oracle says in a press release that Google "knowingly, directly and repeatedly infringed Oracle's Java-related intellectual property." What's interesting is that it involves Java technology, which Oracle acquired when it bought Sun Microsystems earlier in the year. Hmmm, did Oracle lawyers know something that Sun lawyers didnt?

I'm sure you'll be reading more about that in the days ahead. On to some more news:

 

 

Quietly, the European Union is moving toward broad privacy tightening of privacy on Internet applications, specifically in relation to advertising.

The European "Data Protection Working Party" is developing rules for online privacy, and one of the more commonly discussed elements of the new rules is the "cookie directive," which would require all opt-in by consumers to accept a cookie.

This, of course, is a big change in the way online advertisers currently track your activity. They don't need opt-in to insert a cookie in your browser.

Something on Cisco's earnings call last night went terribly wrong. In a rational business sense, Cisco made plenty of money, even though they missed analyst estimates: $1.9B in profit and $40 billion in revenue for the first time in the company's history really isn't that shabby.

But something else was going on. The conference call was awful. It did not inspire confidence. Cisco executives bungled words, proceeded with a new "four-part" format as if they were trying to choreograph an opera at the Met, and struggled to explain the business climate. Even John Chambers himself, master of the bullish technology catchphrase, seemed to have trouble elucidating exactly what the problem was.

"We think the words unusual uncertainty are ... a description of what's happening."

Whaaa? Had we been suddenly been dropped into some metaphysical California Yoga retreat? Unusual uncertainty? What is that? That's not the Chambers I know. That's downright whimpy.

Cisco shares are getting hammered nearly 6% after hours after the company missed targets set by analysts.

The company said in a release that it earned $1.9 billion, or 33 cents per share, in the fiscal fourth quarter that ended July 31. That is an increase of $1.1 billion, or 19 cents per share, over a year ago. But analysts had expected 42 cents in earnings. Overall revenue grow to a record $40 billion.

That's a big miss, especially for Cisco, a company that often beats estimates. Given that it's a technology bellwether and often looked to for guidance on the economy as a whole, it will likely add to pressure on the general market tomorrow.

The Internet privacy movement appears to be gathering steam and leading to growing paranoia (warranted) among those who have the most to lose: Dozens of venture-backed ad networks and advertising data companies.

What's going on? Well, certainly the Wall Street Journal series on data privacy didn't help. This may be the high-profile media piece that tips public opinion toward the privacy advocates, who have been quietly ramping up their assault on the free-and-easy exhange of Internet advertising data.

What should be scaring the Internet marketing companies: The ideas are starting to gain traction in Washington, D.C. Reps. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Joe Barton (R-Texas) recently issued statements that "that the price of consumers' daily use of the Internet increasingly is surrender of their personal information."

At the same time, you have other escalating assaults on the Internet advertising marketing machine. Let me name just a few examples:

This potentially huge development doesn't seem to be getting that much play. Over the past few years, the venture capital industry has funded hundreds of ad data and ad network companies, all of them based on the premise that ad data would be freely acquired, exchanged and even traded. One such company is Blue Kai, a company I've followed on this site, which has their entire business model based on the exchange of anonymous ad data. There are dozens more. What happens to companies like that if powerful privacy legislation is passed?

And then we have even a bigger story: What about Google? Imagine what could happen to Google's market cap if the legislators initiate sweeping changes to Internet privacy laws.

This story is currently being underreported and underhyped. If you are in the Internet advertising or media industry, you should watch it closely. It could change your life.

Let's see, the stock market rallied while economic data was weakening. Yet bonds were rallying at the same time, and yields have been plunging -- to near record-lows of 2.75% in the 10-year! This was a great dichotomy that had many people scratching their heads. Why would stocks rally and bond yields plunge while we got weakening economic data?

Well, if they were fueling up the helicopters, that would make sense.

Remember the bond market is often "smarter" than the stock market. The plunge in yields has been telling you something. Is it not interesting that the stock market and bond rally continued until the Fed announcement and then failed on yesterday's news? Sell the news, baby.

BIG SKY, MT -- RightNow Technologies  (Nasdaq: RNOW), a provider of customer-service software, today launched an ambitious new platform to open up the way customer service applications are built "in the cloud."

With the new "Cloud CX Platform," RightNow is honing its focus around improving customer experiences across the Web. With so much marketing hype and confusion built around "cloud computing," this is an important expansion of RightNow's CX (Customer Experience) product that the company hopes will help differentiate itself in the larger cloud services market -- basically any software than can be sold as a service (Saas).

"This is our largest product announcement to date," said Greg Gianforte, CEO of RightNow, at the launch event here this morning. "We're exposing our cloud platform to our customers."

Service-as-a-software (Saas) company Marketo is riding the trend of real-time analysis of customer behavior, making it one of the fastest enterprise software companies in the venture market and a solid IPO prospect for 2011.

The company, a startup founded in 2006, recently surpassed 600 customers in July. Marketo’s revenue is approaching the $20 million level, based on estimates from company sources that the average annual sales per customer is in the $30,000 rage. While the company is not yet profitable, it looks to be a solid IPO candidate for later in 2011 or 2012.

Still wondering why the market has such bizarre action? Why the Mom-and-Pop investor wants little to do with it? Wondering if fear of Flash Crash II runs high? Look no further, High Frequency Trading (HFT) has been indicted in full.

The blog Zero Hedge, one of the most cutting-edge and informative places to get inside knowledge on how the market works, has been pointing to anslysis from Nanex, a market data provider, on how HFT is corrupting markets and trigger May's "Flash Crash." It paints an incredibly disturbing picture of a dysfunctional market rigged by crooked robots.

I won't reprise the entire analysis -- you can wade through the orginal posting on Nanex discoveries yourself, and it's worth a look if only to see the fascinating and bizarre charts.  But I can summarize it: The markets have run amok with diabolical "quote stuffing" programs that try to mine holes in the market system and  fool other computers and markets into coughing up stock quotes at absurd prices.

There is never a dull moment in business scandal world, and the journos and bloggers are being kept very busy by this Mark Hurd story. But let's get down to the most important questions: 1) Did they have sex and 2) Was she ever a porn star?

I'm speaking of Jodie Fisher, the Hewlett-Packard contractor and "actress" which led to the demise of Mark Hurd, who resigned as the company's CEO on Friday following his having falsified expense reports that involve her.

First question: Did they have sex. Oddly, all of the news reports say no. Okay, but I'm real skeptical. It's hard for me to imagine this being a full-blown "scandal" without there being a little more than some aggressive courtship and falsified expense records.