Time to write up the morning market wrap, before I fall asleep. Kind of a snoozer. Markets are enjoying a small relief rally this morning as no new disastrous news emerged overnight. Data was relatively benign.

The ADP jobs number came out weak, but market digested that. We all know the jobs situation sucks. None of the European banks blew up overnight, and the CDS spreads (an indication of risk) stabilized after hitting new highs yesterday. Euro banks also apparently borrowed less from the ECB than believed, which we are supposed to take as good news.

What to expect going forward? I say, watch the bond market. The fact that bonds hit record highs yesterday, sending the 10-year yield down below 3%, is a big warning sign. This is the trade that has caught everybody -- even the biggest smarty-pants hedge funds -- flat-footed. Yields were supposed to go up, remember? Apparently a lot of hedge funds are being trashed on "yield-steepener" trades (that is a bet that short-term rates do not go up as fast as long-term rates -- i.e. the spread widens), or so says Zero Hedge.

The fact that the yield curve is flattening is surprising a lot of people and does not transmit a good signal about the economy.

In the meantime, it does not look like anything big will happen today. Grab a sandwich, call your mortgage broker about refinancing your mortage at 4.50%, and check back on the market with 60 minutes to go, when all the wild stuff usually happens anyway.

I like stock charts. I have studied many of them over the years, and consulted with the best chartologist. Today's big rally, following last week's meltdown, has retraced about two-thirds of the markets losses in the last week. But it has also produced a scary, bizarro chart. Today's gap-up now leaves a huge gap between the 1130 and 1145 level, which I have marked below with some white lines. Let's call it a "Euro freak-out" gap.  It is my experience with dramatic moves like this that these gaps are almost always filled again.This ugly chart is among several reasons why I'm not confident in today's "comeback rally."
After the European Central Bank (ECB) announced an unprecedented market intervention, the Euro and global stock markets have fallen after this morning's gap up, which is not a good sign at all. During the weekend, with markets and the Euro in freefall, the Euro bankers enacted a $1T bailout package to reassure markets before they opened in Asia early this morning. The plan includes nearly $1 trillion in loans and a bond purchase program to stanch the bleeding in sovereign debt in countries including Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland. Unfortunately, the markets do not appear reassured. The Euro is only up a few points, after being up nearly 2% earlier in the morning. The ECB policy actions were designed to prop up the Euro, after all. Remember, a market's reaction to the news is always more important than the news itself. Can this be construed as good news? Hardly. The size of the response indicates the crisis may have been bigger than we thought. Last week there were many rumors of European bank insolvencies and Credit Default Swaps (CDS) were rising, signaling genuine alarm.
The Euro bankers have taken a page out of Ben Bernanke's playbook and pledged nearly $1 trillion in aid to fight the declining markets. Well, I didn't think they had it in 'em. Therefore, the situation must have been worse than we thought. Nearly  $1 trillion dollars in loan guarantees and bond buybacks will be deployed to stem the bleeding in European sovereign bonds, which started in Greece but then quickly spread to Spain, Portugal, and Ireleand. Will it be enough? We can only hope so, because I think the alternative is something along the lines of financial armageddon. Unfortunately, I think their show of force is demonstrative of just how scary things were getting last week, and that they know further dangers are lurking below the surface of sovereign debt plan. So here's my plan over the next two weeks:
  • Monitor the bounce in markets. If the bounce loses altitude at an early stage (say, after a day or two), re-short markets
  • Buy more gold and silver on any weakness
Do I think things are "saved"? Probably not, though we have bought some time. I will let the markets tell me the story. If this rally cannot be sustained and gold continues to hold its gains, that's a sign that Trichet's $1 trillion bazooka may not be enough.