After months of talking to smart people and taking notes, my latest notebook is filled. Usually what I do at this point is read back through the whole thing to see if there are any nuggets that I missed or forgot about.

Why not just dump it straight onto the Web? This is stuff that real people are saying in the real world. For your pleasure, here you go:

The "Net Neutrality" debate has taken a interesting turn this week, triggered by Verizon and Google's joint statement to move toward more tiered services on the Internet.

Here's where I am on net neutrality: It's not black or white. It's gray. Yes, we need to preserve an element of freedom to access applications over broadband. But also, the definition of net neutraility needs to leave some wiggle room to help telecom and media companies roll out some newer premium appications that make money.

I think the recent developments are actually exciting, because there is now a catalyst for change and the debate is out on the table. Verizon and Google getting together is kind of like the executives of the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees coming to the table on a stadium-sharing deal. But this shows how crucial the issue is, if two of the most powerful corporations in the world are willing to come to the table to talk about it.

As the net neutraility fanatics grab their pitchforks and fire up their blogs, ready the roast the big evil corporations that are trying to swipe away their YouTube Internet, they're being naive if they think things can stay as they are. Stuff's gonna change.

Funny how fortunes swing. Just a few weeks ago, BP was racing quickly to the bottom as Apple was contemplating world domination. This week, their fortunes have reversed -- if only a bit -- as Apple confronts antenna engineering problems and BP's shares are on the rebound on the promise of an oil cap and/or takeover.

Apple shares were down 3.73 (1.45%) to $249 and BP shares rose .84 (2.3%) to $37.02 in midday trading. Apple will be holding a press conference on Friday, as its antenna problems on the iPhone 4 appear to be expanding.

Read on, for the full news:

• An Apple engineer alerted CEO Steve Jobs to the presence of an antenna problem, reports Bloomberg.
• U.S. Sen. Schumer has written a letter to Steve Jobs about the iPhone 4 problems (AppleInsider). Dear Steve, my phone's not working. Can you fix it for a tax break?
• The antenna problems don't seem to be stopping Apple's rollout of new products -- an 11.6-inch MacBook and new iPod Touch are on the way (DigiTimes).
• Here's some fun: A writer says the Droid X self-destructs if you try to modify it (MobileCrunch).
• If the Droid X is a big success, Verizon may not need the iPhone, says the New York Times. Somehow we doubt that.
• The Pentagon is running out of funds (Reuters). Soon to be downgraded to a Triangle.
• Manufacturing data bad = stocks down (Bloomberg). One question I've always had: If the stock market is "forward looking" and "discounting," why can it react so violently to news?
• Billionaire Carlos Slim is digging for gold in Mexico (Bloomberg). Funny how even Billionaires want to find more money, isn't it? I mean, I'd hit the beach after the first $2B.
• BP says it's repaired the cap on the well and a test is proceeding (New York Times). We can only hope this doesn't end in another disappointment.
• I've seen lots of folks distributing the "Methane Bubble Doomsday" story on the social networks. Other journalists appear to be debunking it. Don't believe everything you read on the Internet, folks!
• Thierry Henry has retired from International football (WSJ). All washed up, at 32 years old, apparently. Hello MLS!
• I just don't know what to think of this headline. What do you think? Woman With World's Largest Breasts Fights For Life.
• 2.5 million muslims are threatening to quit Facebook (tnerd).

 

If you think about what's happened the last 4-5 years in smartphones, it's truly remarkable. Apple has created an entirely new, multibillion-dollar franchise. Nokia and RIM's dominance have been severly damaged. And entirely new app and OS systems have been developed.

What's it all mean? As we surmised back in January, it probably means more pain for the legacy market leaders -- people such as Nokia, Ericsson, and RIM. Clearly their market-share is eroding, but more importantly they are losing their grips on OS and apps markets. Apps willd drive this market forward, and Apple and Google's Android are leading here.

With that, on to the news, which in the tech world today is dominated by smartphones:

• With Verizon rumored to be close to picking up the iPhone, look for them to sell upwards of 12 million (Apple Insider). Boy, Nokia and RIM are totally screwed now.
• ZDNet answers your Verizon iPhone questions (ZDnet)
• Credit where credit is due: Bloomberg had the original iPhone-on-Verizon story (Bloomberg). The big Bloomie can still rock out!
• RIM CEO puts on the gameface, even though quarterly subscribers were weak and clearly the iPhone-on-Verizon story is scary for RIM (WSJ). Rearranging deck chairs, anybody?
• RIM is trying to lure developers to its App store (WSJ). Here, kitty kitty.
• How to troubleshoot the iPhone 4 antenna problems (BGR). 1) Get out of car 2) Put on tin-foil hat.
• Cisco introduced a tablet device! (ZDnet). Picture John Chambers speaking in his soothing tones: "This will really enable collaboration and innovation in the workplace.. " yada yada yada.
• Cool international espionage news of the day: A Russian spy worked in the Barclays office in London (Guardian). I love the fact that she had a LinkedIn profile. Think of all your Facebook friends that could be spies!
• Market looks pretty snoozy today (MarketWatch). Time for the hedgies to spruce of their end-of-Q marketups and markdowns and then grab a facial. Don't be lured into complacency, becuase the next market facial may be coming. 
• Wall Street psychology cheat sheet (The Big Picture).
• Profiles of "Open Carry" advocates (Time). In Montana, this is not news. My friend pointed out that he walked by a guy carrying a shotgun down the street the other day.

 

 

Well, AT&T has eliminated the unlimited data plan, and Internet anarchists everywhere are having a cow. The funny thing is AT&T's headline on the announcement: "AT&T Announes New Lower-Priced Wireless Data Plans..."

First question: Are the plans really lower priced, as AT&T claims? Now that's funny. If you read the headline on this press release you would think it was some mundane, tiny pricing shift -- like AT&T thought it could slip one by millions of frothing-mouthed, blogging mobile data heads. Of course the digital-media addicted Internet anarchists note that by definition eliminating an all-you-can eat plan is raising prices. MobileCrunch calls this a "sad day in data land."

No, that crummy connection from AT&T on your iPhone is not your imagination. According to some new research from ChangeWave research, AT&T (T) drops three times as many calls as Verizon (VZ). The issues of whose network is better was the heart of Luke Wilson's war. Looks like AT&T is losing. ChangeWave says that in a  survey of 4,040 consumers using North American mobile carriers, Verizon customers reported only 1.5% of their calls being dropped over the past three months, the lowest in the  industry. AT&T reached its all time worst rating in this measure, with customers reporting 4.5% of calls dropped in the last three months. AT&T finished last in the March survey of North American mobile providers. Sprint finished second with 2.4% of calls dropped, and T-Mobile finished third with 2.8% of calls dropped.  The trend shows  an increasing number of dropped calls among AT&T customers surveyed and a decreasing number of dropped calls for Verizon customers.

The Black Swan is one of my favorite books, if only because it proves the absurdity and unpredictability of life. It ratified something I had suspected for many years: Nobody has any idea what's going to happen next. Take the volcano ash, for example. I don't imagine a lot of people this week thought  that they could wake up on Thursday to find that a large volcanic eruption in Iceland had pretty much shut down most air travel in Europe... and that it might extend through the weekend. Just like  CEO of Bear Stearns played golf, having no clue that his company could be vaporized in a matter of days. Whoops! Yes, Nassim Nicholas Taleb is onto something. Black Swans happen all the time! So let's review the strange and unpredictable things that are happening on this news day:

• The volcanic ash cloud is spreading and getting worse, wreaking havoc on European air travel.
• The ash cloud may prevent President Obama from attending the state funeral for late Polish President Lech Kaczynski (Associated Press)
• Obama says that we will end up on Mars, in his lifetime (SFgate.com). Funny he can't even get to Europe but thinks we can get to Mars.
• What's up with Larry King and 8 wives? See this video clip: Why the ladies Love Larry King. Um, the money? The fame? um... I just dunno.And, by the way, somebody says he didn't have a prenup.
• The hottest blondes in sports (Bleacher Report). I dunno, I realize this has nothing to do with anything. It's Friday. I just felt like I had to link that that.
• The HTC Droid Incredible will be out on Verizon by the end of April (PCWorld).
• How about that meteor (Telegraph). Or was it something else?
• Headline of the week: "'Tyrant King' Leech Discovered, Attacks Orifices" (National Geographic). You just have to see the picture. By the way, don't look if you haven't had breakfast.
• Don't you hate it when you find a Python in your hotel room? (Associated Press). In the toilet!
• "Has Steve Jobs gone mad?" (Fortune). Another great headline.
• The SEC is suing Goldman Sachs (Bloomberg). Good luck, SEC. You couldn't even catch Bernie Madoff.
• The Bank of America has returned to profitability (Bloomberg). That has a nice ring to it. We hope it's real.
• China has adjusted policy on home ownership, requiring larger down payments (Wall Street Journal). You think they don't learn from us?

LAS VEGAS -- All of the exciting new devices and discussion about high-bandwidth 4G (Fourth Generation) data services (up to 100Mbps) here at CTIA have the comm equipment guys salivating: It's likely to mean a boom in new business for building backhaul networks, the plumbing that carriers need to haul all of the data to and from the mobile towers. There are deals to be had, as Alcatel-Lucent announced a new deal with Verizon for backhaul networks paving the way for 4G. In addition, equipment vendors were announcing new gear that can accommodate service providers that need to overhaul their networks for mobile upgrades. For example, Huntsville, Alabama-based Adtran yesterday announced a flexible new Ethernet mobile backhaul product, the NetVanta(R) 8044M,  that can easily swap between copper and fiber.

Service provicers are spending the most time testing the Blackberry OS, but Android-based phones are gaining and the Microsoft Windows and Symbian OS continue to lose share with developers, according to data from mobile developer testing specialist DeviceAnywhere . The data, which measures testing of smartphones on the four major U.S mobile networks, is released monthly with the latest numbers coming from January of 2010. In DeviceAnywhere's measure of time spent on the OS, BlackBerry lead the way with 58.5% usage, up from 50.6% from January of 2009. Microsoft Windows Mobile fell from 22.5%  in January of 2009 to 16.2%% and Android jumped from 2% to 5%. Here are a few bullet points from the research:

Android Testing On the Rise.

• From a standing start in 2009, Android has become the fourth most tested smartphone Operating System in DeviceAnywhere Test Center in the United States.
• The Android-based T-Mobile G1 has risen to become the most-tested device on the T-Mobile Virtual Developer Lab.

Less Time Spent on Microsoft Windows Phones.

• The time spent on Windows Mobile dropped significantly from 26.5% in January ‘09 to 16.2% in January ‘10, as a proportion of total time spent on smartphones in DeviceAnywhere Test Center.

Handset Manufacturers without Established App Stores Holding Up Well.

• While industry discussion has focused on app stores, testing on mobile devices from application developers, web, content and media companies has taken a wider view.
• The second, third and fourth most popular devices for testing on DeviceAnywhere Test Center are Samsung, Motorola and LG respectively, all of which do not yet have US application storefronts.

In terms of popular devices driving usage, the BlackBerry 9000 and the Apple iPhone were the most popular on the AT&T network. On Sprint, it was the BlackBerry Curve (8330) and the Palm Pre. On T-Mobile it was the HTC G1 and the Motorola V2 and on Verizon BlackBerry led the way with the 9630 with the 8330 in the first and second spot.

LAS VEGAS -- Service provider Sprint, which has suffered some much-publicized problems following its merger with Nextel, losing customers at an alarming rate, is making a major push towards its 4G/Wimax efforts here at the CTIA wireless show. WiMax is a "4G" or Fourth Generation wireless technology offering bandwidth up to 100Mbps. It's considered a rival to forthcoming LTE (Long Term Evolution) technology being pursued by Sprint rivals AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), but Sprint and Clearwire have been aggressive in marketing WiMax ahead of the pack, making it a huge and risky bet numbering in the billions of dollars. Today Sprint announced its bringing more WiMAX cities online 2010, adding Cincinnati, Cleveland, Los Angeles, Miami, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City and St. Louis to their list of 4G locations. Today at 1:30 PT Sprint is also expected to announce new 4G device developments. We'll be attending the event and our live blog will follow below... check back in with us at 1:30 PT!